Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change

Gudmundsson，Lukas1; Boulange，Julien2; Do，Hong X.3,4,5; Gosling，Simon N.6; Grillakis，Manolis G.7; Koutroulis，Aristeidis G.8; Leonard，Michael3; Liu，Junguo9; Schmied，Hannes Müller10,11; Papadimitriou，Lamprini12,13; Pokhrel，Yadu14; Seneviratne，Sonia I.1; Satoh，Yusuke2,15; Thiery，Wim1,16; Westra，Seth3; Zhang，Xuebin17; Zhao，Fang18,19

2021-03-12

10.1126/science.aba3996

SCIENCE   影响因子和分区

0036-8075

1095-9203

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.

SCI

英语

NI期刊 ; NI论文 ; ESI高被引

其他

H2020 project CRESCENDO[641816] ; H2020 project 4C[821003] ; European Research Council through the ERC DROUGHT-HEAT project[FP7-IDEAS-ERC-617518] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[01LS1711F] ; University of Michigan[U064474] ; ETH Zurich Foundation[Fel-45 15-1] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41625001,41571022] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060402] ; MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI[16H06291] ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund[2RF-1802] ; National Science Foundation[1752729] ; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models)[JPMXD0717935715] ; Greek State Scholarship Foundation (IKY)[MIS5033021]

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Multidisciplinary Sciences

WOS:000630096400035

AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE

BIOLOGY & BIOCHEMISTRY;CLINICAL MEDICINE;MULTIDISCIPLINARY;PLANT & ANIMAL SCIENCE;ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;MICROBIOLOGY;ECONOMICS BUSINESS;IMMUNOLOGY;MATERIALS SCIENCE;MATHEMATICS;COMPUTER SCIENCE;SPACE SCIENCE;MOLECULAR BIOLOGY & GENETICS;CHEMISTRY;PSYCHIATRY/PSYCHOLOGY;NEUROSCIENCE & BEHAVIOR;PHYSICS;GEOSCIENCES;ENGINEERING

2-s2.0-85102417830

Scopus

1.Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,Department of Environmental Systems Science,ETH Zurich,Zürich,Switzerland
2.National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES),Tsukuba,Japan
3.School of Civil,Environmental and Mining Engineering,University of Adelaide,Adelaide,Australia
4.Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources,Nong Lam University,Ho Chi Minh City,Viet Nam
5.School for Environment and Sustainability,University of Michigan,Ann Arbor,United States
6.School of Geography,University of Nottingham,Nottingham,NG7 2RD,United Kingdom
7.Institute for Mediterranean Studies,Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas,Rethymno,74100,Greece
8.School of Environmental Engineering,Technical University of Crete,Chania,Greece
9.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech),Shenzhen,518055,China
10.Institute of Physical Geography,Goethe University Frankfurt,Frankfurt am Main,Germany
11.Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F),Frankfurt am Main,Germany
12.Cranfield Water Science Institute,Cranfield University,Cranfield,United Kingdom
13.Mott MacDonald Ltd,Cambridge,United Kingdom
14.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Michigan State University,East Lansing,United States
15.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,Laxenburg,Austria
16.Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering,Vrije Universiteit Brussel,Brussels,Belgium
17.Environment Canada,Toronto,Canada
18.Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education),School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai,China
19.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),Potsdam,Germany

Gudmundsson，Lukas,Boulange，Julien,Do，Hong X.,et al. Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change[J]. SCIENCE,2021,371(6534):1159-1162.

Gudmundsson，Lukas.,Boulange，Julien.,Do，Hong X..,Gosling，Simon N..,Grillakis，Manolis G..,...&Zhao，Fang.(2021).Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change.SCIENCE,371(6534),1159-1162.

Gudmundsson，Lukas,et al."Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change".SCIENCE 371.6534(2021):1159-1162.